基于铀矿石浓缩物的稀土元素分布模式的产地溯源多元统计方法分析

    Geolocation Discrimination of Uranium Ore Concentrates by Multivariate Statistics Analysis of Its Rare Earth Elements Pattern

    • 摘要: 铀矿石浓缩物作为可以在国际上公开交易的核材料,其丰富的痕量杂质反映了铀矿石的形成、矿物组成、铀矿冶流程、产地等重要信息,是开展核取证分析的理想对象。铀矿石浓缩物的稀土元素分布模式作为重要特征指纹之一,可以作为有效的产地溯源的工具。开展了主成分分析(PCA)、因子分析(FA)、聚类分析(CA)和偏最小二乘法(PLS)等方法对铀矿石浓缩物稀土元素分布模式的多元统计分析,尝试通过稀土元素分布模式进行铀矿石浓缩物的产地溯源研究。研究表明:各种不同的统计方法具有不同的优缺点,单靠一种或两种多元统计的方法不能够完全描述铀矿石浓缩物的特征指纹参数。对于类似于中国、澳大利亚或者加拿大等拥有巨大领土面积和复杂地质结构的国家,铀矿石浓缩物的产地溯源工作存在着很大的技术难度与风险,需要综合利用多种方法才能准确有效地进行产地溯源工作。

       

      Abstract: Uranium ore concentrates(UOCs) are a kind of nuclear materials which can be traded legally in the international market. Uranium ore concentrates have become attractive targets for nuclear forensic because of the richness in characteristic signatures compared to other materials produced later in the fuel cycle. The rich trace impurities of UOCs is an ideal object for nuclear forensic analysis, in which it reflects the important information of uranium ore formation, mineral composition, process of uranium mining and geolocation. As one of the important characteristic fingerprints, the rare earth elements(REEs) distribution pattern of UOCs can be used as an attractive alternative to attribute the origin of uranium ore concentrates. In this paper, several multivariate statistical methods in pattern recognition, including principal component analysis(PCA), factor analysis(FA), cluster analysis(CA) and partial least squares(PLS) were compared and the advantages and disadvantages of various methods were summarized. The results show that it is a tough work to fully describe the characteristic fingerprint parameters of uranium ore concentrates by only one or two methods. The principal component analysis(PCA) method can reduce the dimension of the data and retain the original characteristics of the data. However, the classification of the data is not taken into account in the process of analysis and the results only show the difference between the samples. The factor analysis(FA) method is essentially a process of extracting potential factors from dominant variables and the form of factors is not unique. Cluster analysis(CA) can classify the origin of uranium ore concentrates. However, there is no quantitative data to illustrate the difference in the same classification of uranium ore concentrates. The partial least squares(PLS) method takes into account the difference between all the data points from the algorithm, and PLS can also perform multiple iterations to identify the subtle difference of uranium ore and uranium ore concentrates with the same origin, so that the precise geolocation of uranium ore concentrate can be realized. It is generally used in regression studies with less sample size, so PLS can show more detailed fingerprint features than PCA. To date, the scientists still face a great of difficulties to attribute the geolocation of uranium ore concentrates, especially to those uranium ore concentrates mined and milled in the countries or regions with vast territory and complex geological features. The combination of several multivariate statistical methods might be an attractive avenue to accurately and effectively trace the origin of uranium ore concentrates, but it still has a long way to go.

       

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